The win rate is read at its lower bound, not as reported
A raw win rate says nothing about how confident you can be in it. Three trades and three
wins is 100%; four hundred trades and two hundred and forty-eight wins is 62%. The Score uses
the lower bound of the statistical confidence interval around the win rate rather than the
percentage itself, which means the small sample is scored close to the bottom of what it could
plausibly be and the large one close to what it is.
The effect is that a short lucky run cannot outrank a long consistent one on
this input, and the Provider does not need to do anything for that to be true.
The return is annualised, not accumulated
Cumulative profit rewards a Strategy for having existed longer, which is not a skill. The
Score uses CAGR, the annualised rate, so a Strategy that has run for two months and one that
has run for two years are compared on the same basis.
Annualising a short window is noisy in the other direction: a good month
extrapolates to an absurd year. That is exactly why the credibility factor below exists, and
the two changes are a matched pair rather than two separate ideas.
Every performance figure is shrunk toward a neutral reference
Profit factor, CAGR and drawdown are each pulled back toward a cautious default in
proportion to how little evidence stands behind them. The amount of pull comes from a
credibility factor built from two curves: how many trades the record contains, which stops
counting new evidence at around three hundred, and how many days it has been active, which
stays deliberately low for the first couple of months and rises through the following few.
A new Strategy is not being punished for being new. It is being scored on the
evidence it has actually produced, and it climbs as that evidence accumulates without anyone
intervening.